Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, June 19th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as traders prepare for this afternoon’s big events. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 51 points and the Nasdaq down 1 point. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (2.09%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates very close to yesterday’s morning levels. If you saw a downward revision intraday yesterday, you likely will see a slight increase this morning.



30 yr - 2.09%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

We have no relevant economic data set for release today, but we do have a couple of major Fed events taking place this afternoon. The first is the 2:00 PM adjournment of the FOMC meeting that is widely expected to yield no change to key short-term interest rates. Because there is a wide consensus, the lack of a move itself shouldn't have a noticeable impact on the markets. But what is likely to heavily influence trading is any indication of when the Fed may make their next move, which is believed to be a possible rate cut. If there is a hint of that being a reality soon, the bond market should rally, causing mortgage rates to improve.



Misc Fed

Also at 2:00 PM ET will be the release of the Fed’s revised estimates for future economic activity. They will post their predictions on GDP growth, unemployment and inflation. These could be a market mover if they show even minor revisions to any of the key headline economic numbers. The larger the change, the more likely the markets will react. Revisions that point toward slower economic growth will be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.



Fed Talk

They will be followed by a press conference hosted by Chairman Powell at 2:30 PM ET. These press conferences with the media can lead to significant afternoon volatility in the markets and mortgage rates. Any surprises will probably cause a noticeable reaction in the markets. That means there is a high probability of seeing afternoon changes to mortgage rates.




We will be updating this report shortly after the markets have had an opportunity to react to the Fed events. There is some minor economic data scheduled for tomorrow morning, which will be addressed in this afternoon’s revision.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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